Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

The rand’s recent strength might not extend too much further

The rand has recently reached its strongest levels against the US dollar in nearly two years, briefly dipping below R17/$ from its R17.05/$ trading range. Yet technical analysis and historical volatility patterns suggest this strength may be temporary, creating a potential opportunity for investors seeking to establish offshore currency positions.

Looking ahead to end-2026, median forecasts paint a mixed picture for South Africa’s carry trade returns which are expected to diminish against the euro, hold steady against the US dollar, and strengthen modestly against the pound sterling.

The outlook remains complicated by underlying economic weakness. South Africa has experienced subdued investment activity throughout the year, particularly in the first half, which has constrained growth. While the Reserve Bank and International Monetary Fund have recently revised growth forecasts upward, the economy still faces anaemic expansion alongside persistently high unemployment. In a broader risk-off market environment—increasingly likely given global uncertainties—emerging markets typically face headwinds, with currency markets often serving as the first indicator of this stress.

USD/ZAR: Overbought rand, oversold dollar

The rand last week tested its best levels against the dollar since 2023. The brief move through R17.05/$ and below R17/$ has however started to unwind at the start of the current week, and ahead of the US Fed rates announcement and economic projection scheduled for late Wednesday evening (10 December 2025).

The long-term directional trend for the USD/ZAR is sideways. The rand is starting to look overbought against an oversold dollar between current levels and the R16.65/$ mark. These levels also mark the best levels for the rand against the dollar in nearly two years.

Should the range hold and the oversold USD/ZAR signal hold true in its suggestion, R17.60/$ and R17.80/$ become longer term upside targets for the currency pair.

GBP/ZAR: Rebound potential from two-year support

The GBP/ZAR also trades at the lower end of a two-year range between the currency pair. The move out of oversold territory supports the GBP/ZAR starting to rebound off support and suggest that a move towards R23.58/GBP may be likely.

This suggestion would fail on a weekly close below the R22.41/GBP mark in which a move towards R21.47/GBP would instead be favoured.

EUR/ZAR: Euro strength persists, but technical reversal likely

The Euro has been the one currency which is actually a little bit firmer against the rand in 2025 as carry trade opportunity between the two countries marginally reduces. The currency pair is however also looking oversold at current levels suggesting that a rebound could see a move towards R20.80/EUR.

This outlook would be invalidated by a weekly close below R19.60/EUR. In that case, downside targets near R18.70/EUR become increasingly plausible.

A strong rand creates opportunity

If you’re considering taking advantage of current levels, now is the right time to confirm how much of your 2025 Single Discretionary Allowance you still have available.

Any unused SDA expires on 24 December and cannot be carried forward. Our team can verify your remaining allowance, guide you through the process, and help position your portfolio before year-end liquidity constraints set in.

For personalised assistance, email [email protected] or call +27 11 781 4454.