Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

Markets pause as technical and geopolitical signals intersect

While underlying trends across equities and commodities remain broadly constructive, near-term direction is increasingly dependent on external catalysts, particularly geopolitical developments.

For now, price action reflects a market in wait-and-see mode, with a slight positive bias emerging but confirmation still required before committing to directional trades.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

The J40 Cash Index has rebounded modestly since our last note, and is now consolidating between levels 106,103 (support) and 10,9232 (resistance).

Despite the fog of war and Trump’s barrage of seemingly more aggressive social media posts, the charts still suggest a slightly more positive than negative bias.

But we are consolidating for now, and a Wednesday morning (local) Trump deadline for Iran negotiations looms, remaining a likely catalyst for the next commitment to direction.

We are now waiting to see which level breaks first, 106,103 or 109,232.

A close below 106130 would suggest a retest of the 102,341 support level.

A close above the 109232 level would suggest a move towards 111512.

In both scenarios, we are now waiting for long entry due to our assumption of a slightly more positive bias to the chart setup.
In the downside breakout scenario, we would, however, wait for a bullish price reversal above the 102341 level before looking for long entry.

*Important to note, there is a large div adjustment of 357.5 points today on the J40 Cash Index

ZAR

USD/ZAR

The bearish price reversal from overbought territory (highlighted in our previous note) resulted in the price moving back to the 16.75 support level.

We are now assessing how the USD/ZAR price handles this (16.75) level.

A close above the halfway mark of our preceding red candle would suggest a bullish price reversal, with 17.22 the initial upside resistance target.

Should the 16.75 level not hold, and we see a close below, a move towards the next level of support at 16.42 would instead be favoured.

Commodities

Gold

The bullish price reversal highlighted in our previous note resulted in the price trading through the 4,700 resistance target.

The price is now consolidating in a very narrow range short-term.

The recent push higher would argue that there is now a slight upward bias for gold now. Our preference is to wait for long entry on either a break of resistance at 4,700, or on a bullish reversal closer to the 4,560 (not labelled) or 4,400 support levels.

Should one of these scenarios manifest we will update guidance accordingly.

Brent Crude Oil

The price of Brent crude has rallied back to and above the closing high of 112.86. The break above this level suggests further gains with 119.50 a possible target.

Traders who are long might consider trailing stop-loss levels to a close below a one- or two-day low. Traders not long the commodity might prefer to wait and look for long entry into the first pullback from current highs.

Financials

Discovery

The share price of Discovery has found a confluence of trend line and horizontal support at the 242 level. We continue to look for a bullish price reversal off this level to suggest the longer-term uptrend is resuming. In this scenario, a move towards the highs at 256.60 and 266.12, respectively, would be targeted, while a close below trend line support might be used as a stop-loss indication.

Resources

Industrials

MTN

MTN may be one for traders to put on the watchlist for now. The long-term trend is up, although in the short-term, the share price has been consolidating within a triangle-shaped formation. Triangles in an uptrend suggest that a continuation of the long-term uptrend may be nearing. The approach to trading these patterns is to wait for a confirmed break of the pattern’s resistance before committing to the directional momentum.

Retail