Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

Technical breakdown meets oversold conditions

Markets have moved into a more uncertain phase, with key technical levels breaking even as oversold conditions begin to trigger tentative reversal signals.

The J40’s move below its 200-day moving average raises questions around the broader trend, while sharp moves across commodities and currencies reflect a market increasingly driven by geopolitical uncertainty.

For now, price action is sending mixed signals, with the focus shifting firmly towards confirmation before any directional conviction can be established.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

We broke support, we are trading below the 200MA, but we are also oversold, and there is a tentative bullish reversal which has formed off the 98,991 level.

The signals are mixed, the move below the 200MA (blue line) suggests the uptrend is now broken. This does not yet suggest a new downtrend to be in place, after all we could also be sitting in a large sideways rangebound environment.

The oversold signal and reversal off support at 98,991 suggest a short-term rebound is possible.

The chaos of war is creating ambiguity; we have a commitment from Trump that he will not bomb energy facilities until Friday, while discussions with Iran are underway. We are also not sure if these discussions are real or not due to conflicting reports.

From a purely technical view, we would feel more comfortable on long positions with a price move back above the 200MA (at around 104,640).

We are also now watching the 98,991 level as it marks a major low; a close below this level would add credence to the idea of a longer-term downtrend now emerging.

We do also have a cash adjustment on the J40 this afternoon, estimated at 318.1 points

ZAR

USD/ZAR

The USD/ZAR has pushed higher to test resistance at 17.13. A close above this level would suggest 17.55 to be a further upside target from the breakout (should it occur). Initial support comes in at 16.42, which instead becomes our initial target should we not get the upside break of the 17.13 level.

Commodities

Gold

The price of gold came crashing through all our support levels from our previous note. The aggressive move lower now questions the validity of the longer-term uptrend.

The price has, however, found support at the 4,275 level and trades in oversold territory. The chart ambiguity mimics and exaggerates that of the J40 index.

The reversal off support needs to confirm with a strong price close above the open of the previous candle. In which case, a rebound from oversold territory is assumed. In this scenario, 4,700 becomes the initial upside resistance target, while a close below the 4,275 level could be used as a stop loss indication.

Brent Crude Oil

The long-term trend for oil remains up, although we have seen another sharp pullback from highs to correct an overexuberant trend.

Should the correction continue our next level of support is considered at the 94 level.

Resistance comes in at 112.86. and provides a short-term target should we get a bullish price reversal to end the correction before support at the 94 level.

Financials

Resources

Industrials

Aspen

The share price of Aspen looks to be completing its first correction since making new short-term highs. We are looking for a close above the dotted trend line on our chart before targeting a move towards at least the 137.29 level. In this scenario, traders who find long entry might consider using a close below the low at 123.93 as a stop loss indication.

Retail