Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

Local markets at a crossroads

Tuesday, 23 June 2026

The JSE’s J40 is testing critical support after failing at resistance, gold and oil remain under pressure, and financials stand out as the only clear bright spot.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

While resistance at 108,261 held, the pullback from overbought territory which followed has not yet been buyable. What looked like a reversal off support on Monday, eroded into the close of the session. We are now trading below the 104,243 level.

In the absence of a bullish price reversal, 100,337 becomes the downside support target. There is still much time left in the current session.

An intraday reversal could look like today’s candle with a long lower wick and a close closer to session highs than lows. Traders looking for long entry might hope for a close back above the 104,243 level.

One would feel that the longer the lower wick on today’s candle, the higher the probability of a rebound. The shorter the wick on today’s candle, the higher the probability of a move to test the 100,337 support level.

Essentially, we are looking to see whether the earlier move lower is rejected or accepted by markets.

ZAR

USD/ZAR

The USD/ZAR has been volatile but continues to grind higher towards range resistance. Traders who have been long the reversal off the 16.14 level and break above the 16.29 level might consider trailing their stops to a close below today’s intraday low (16.37).

Commodities

Gold

Gold remains in a long term rangebound environment but is looking particularly vulnerable at support. The price is currently testing 4,098, if it doesn’t hold 4,025 and 3,885 are lower levels considered.

Our preference is to look for long entry on a bullish price reversal off one of the labelled levels of support. However, if the 3,885 level doesn’t hold, this could suggest a deeper decline in the price of the precious metal.

Should we get an actionable reversal or downside break we will update guidance accordingly.

Brent Crude Oil

The price of brent crude has broken support of the longer-term range and has been pretty much in free fall since. The gap which formed at the start of the war between levels 74.00 and 76.22 now becomes support targets for the price.

The oil price is now in oversold territory. While this suggests a rebound towards 83.08 could be possible, the short to medium term momentum for the commodity remains down.

Financials

JSE Financials are currently the outperforming within the local market environment. The rectangle on the chart shows how the sector consolidated for a few months before having recently broken out, looking to extend the longer-term uptrend.

The index and in turn several of its constituents have moved into overbought territory. This is a suggestion that pullbacks within selected stocks within the sector remain buyable at present.

Resources

The Resource index has been slowly consolidating its long-term uptrend. Weakness in the index has been weighted largely to precious metal counters, while more heavyweight industrial metal counters like BHP and Anglos have helped slow the sectors short term decline.

The resource index now finds long term trend line support. This looks like a critical juncture for the resource sector. The optimist might say we have a falling wedge formation which a pre cursor to the preceding uptrend being extended. However, for this notion to hold weight we need to see support hold and the price of the index producing some evidence that it has stopped falling and is setting up to reverse course.

Industrials

The industrial index shows a broader consolidation in the mix of non- financial and non-resource counters. Within this sector we have seen retail counters under pressure while a handful of stocks (Telecoms, Richemont, Aspen, Bidvest and Remgro) have helped buoy the index.

Range bound environments suggest trading to targets or waiting for a bigger breakout for directional commitment.

Our preference remains looking to find long entry into the outperforming shares within the sector, as in the names mentioned above. The underperforming (retail) counters have had a lot of risk priced in so find increased danger on the short side, although have not yet given enough indications that the prices are ready to reverse course just yet (perhaps with the exclusion of Shoprite).