Portfolio Manager, Rand Swiss

Viv is a senior analyst and investment specialist, focusing on international and local markets. He frequently appears in the media, contributing to channels such as: SABC, CNBC, SAFM, 702 and ETV. He is also a regular guest lecturer at a number of prominent business schools and advanced education programmes, and previously lectured at tertiary institutions such as UKZN and DUT.

You can follow Viv on YouTube at @RandSwiss for regular market updates and AI insights.

Gold, silver and platinum: Anatomy of a boom, a bust, and the case for round two

Thursday, 18 June 2026

For the better part of two years, the precious-metals complex did something it rarely does: it went vertical. Gold climbed roughly 50% in 2025 and more than 150% over three years, smashing through $4,000 an ounce in October and barreling past $5,000 in January 2026. Silver was even more violent, surging close to 150% in 2025 before touching an all-time high of over $120 in late January. Platinum, the perennial laggard, gained almost 120% and set its own record over $ 2900.

What drove it?

At the core sat a quiet revolt against the dollar. Central banks—led by Asia—kept buying bullion at a record clip, and at one point gold’s share of global central-bank reserves overtook US Treasuries for the first time since 1996. With Washington’s debt pile swelling, the Federal Reserve’s independence under open political pressure, and a multipolar world hunting for neutral reserve assets that no rival government controls, gold reasserted its ancient role as money that cannot be printed. Every fresh headline about sanctions, fiscal deficits or threats to central-bank independence simply reinforced the thesis.

Behind that sat the structural rise of the East. Chinese investment demand, Indian households pledging gold as loan collateral, and record Western ETF inflows—close to $89 billion into gold funds in 2025—created a rare alignment of price-insensitive and return-hungry buyers at the same time. Silver and platinum rode the same monetary wave, amplified by genuine industrial supply deficits: solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics for silver; autocatalysts and chronically tight mine supply, much of it South African, for platinum. When a monetary bid and a physical shortage arrive together, prices do not move in straight lines—they move in leaps.

Why 2026 turned ugly

In mid-June, the US and Iran reached a tentative peace deal, due to be signed in Switzerland, that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the blockade, and unwind sanctions. Oil promptly tumbled to three-month lows, with Brent dropping back below $80.

There is a very strong consensus that this deal will hold, and the reason is deeply tied to Washington’s domestic politics. With the November 2026 midterm elections fast approaching, President Trump is acutely aware of the political damage caused by soaring inflation. Skyrocketing pump prices are a direct threat to his party’s electoral success. Driven by fears of voter backlash over the cost of living, the Trump administration has immense incentive to push this diplomatic resolution over the finish line. Taming the oil markets and cooling headline inflation before voters head to the polls is a non-negotiable political priority.

This is the hinge for the rebound case. The metals fell because an oil-driven inflation scare made the Fed hawkish. Reverse the oil shock and you potentially reverse the entire chain: cooling inflation lets the Fed turn dovish again, real yields fall, and the opportunity cost of holding bullion drops—precisely the conditions under which gold and silver have always thrived. Just as importantly, the structural pillars of the bull market never actually cracked. Central banks bought a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter, Western fiscal deficits keep widening, and the supply deficits in silver and platinum remain firmly in place. Most major-bank year-end price targets still sit well above today’s levels—meaning the institutions see the drawdown as a correction inside an intact uptrend, not the end of one.

The caveats are real. Reopening a shipping lane takes months—insurers, ship owners and crews must be convinced it is safe before full traffic resumes—so oil and inflation relief will be gradual rather than instant. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh argues that AI-driven productivity is disinflationary and that rates can ultimately fall, which would be bullish for metals; but a central bank that tightens into a fading supply shock could choke growth without quickly taming prices. And precious metals are simply volatile: sharp, stomach-churning pullbacks inside intact bull markets are the norm, not the exception.

The war ends—does the rebound begin?

Then the floor gave way. By mid-June 2026, gold had retreated over 20% from its peak to roughly $4,330; silver had collapsed more than 40% to hover around $70; and platinum had slid to roughly $1,802. For an asset class marketed as the ultimate inflation hedge, the trigger was deeply ironic: an inflation shock.

On 28 February, a US–Israeli strike on Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and LNG. Crude spiked—Brent averaged around $107 in May—and US inflation re-accelerated to 4.2% in May, a three-year high. Crucially, that supply-driven inflation did not help the metals. Instead, it forced the Fed to abandon the rate cuts markets had been counting on. By June, traders saw the next move as more likely a hike than a cut, and Goldman Sachs had scrapped its 2026 cut calls entirely.

Higher-for-longer interest rates are kryptonite for assets that pay no yield. As real Treasury yields climbed, the opportunity cost of holding gold, silver and platinum jumped, and the hot speculative money that had piled in during the parabola rushed for the exits. Silver suffered an extra, mechanical blow: after it breached $100, exchanges sharply raised futures margin requirements, forcing leveraged longs to post collateral they could not—or would not—find. The forced selling fed on itself, turning an overdue correction into one of the fastest precious-metals routs in decades.

Positioning—for South Africans especially

For local investors, the cleanest exposure runs through ETFs: Gold via NewGold ETF (GLD); silver via Absa NewWave Silver ETN (NEWSLV); and platinum via the confusingly named NewGold Platinum ETF (NGPLT). South Africa’s unique leverage, though, is in the miners. Impala Platinum and Sibanye-Stillwater offer geared plays on any PGM recovery, while AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields track the bullion price more directly. Rand weakness can sweeten offshore returns, but it cuts both ways.

The honest verdict: the boom was real, the bust was rational, and the conditions for a second leg are quietly assembling—but they hinge on oil staying down, the Fed pivoting, and a politically-motivated peace deal holding steady through November.

If you’d like to discuss whether these stocks/ETFs are appropriate for your portfolio, I’d recommend speaking with one of our analysts by emailing [email protected].