Portfolio Manager, Rand Swiss

Viv is a senior analyst and investment specialist, focusing on international and local markets. He frequently appears in the media, contributing to channels such as: SABC, CNBC, SAFM, 702 and ETV. He is also a regular guest lecturer at a number of prominent business schools and advanced education programmes, and previously lectured at tertiary institutions such as UKZN and DUT.

You can follow Viv on YouTube at @RandSwiss for regular market updates and AI insights.

SpaceX is finally listing. Should investors participate?

Friday, 12 June 2026

With an expected valuation approaching $1.8 trillion, the company will become one of the largest and most valuable businesses ever to come to market. For investors, the listing represents a rare opportunity to gain direct exposure to one of the defining technology companies of the modern era.

As Rand Swiss clients have explored participating in the IPO through our partnership with Swissquote, one question has surfaced repeatedly:

Should investors participate?

As with most opportunities of this scale, the investment case is not entirely one-sided.

SpaceX is undoubtedly an extraordinary company. The question is whether it is equally attractive at the valuation investors are being asked to pay.

A company unlike any other

Most investors still think of SpaceX primarily as a rocket company.

That description is now far too narrow.

The business has built a dominant position in commercial space launches, developed the world’s largest satellite internet network through Starlink, and is increasingly at the intersection of artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and communications technology.

The launch business provides strategic importance and technological leadership. Starlink has become a substantial recurring revenue engine with global reach. Meanwhile, the company’s growing investment in AI infrastructure and high-performance computing has expanded its addressable market far beyond aerospace.

The result is a company that touches several of the most important structural growth themes of the coming decade.

Few companies offer investors simultaneous exposure to space infrastructure, satellite communications and artificial intelligence at scale. That combination is a large part of what makes the company so difficult to value using conventional metrics.

That also helps explain why investor interest in the IPO has been so intense.

The valuation debate

The proposed valuation places SpaceX among the most valuable companies in the world from the moment it lists.

Such a valuation assumes the company can continue expanding well beyond its traditional aerospace roots. Investors are effectively backing not only the future growth of Starlink, but also the company’s ability to build meaningful businesses across artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure and other adjacent technologies.

The opportunity is substantial, but so are the expectations.

The challenge is that when a company is valued largely on future potential rather than current earnings, even small disappointments can have an outsized impact on investor sentiment. Slower growth, increased competition, regulatory hurdles or execution missteps could all place pressure on the shares.

In many respects, the debate is less about whether SpaceX can continue growing, and more about how much of that future growth is already reflected in the valuation.

Why IPOs often behave differently

Despite valuation concerns, there is another dynamic investors should consider.

Large, high-profile IPOs frequently experience strong initial demand following listing.

Institutional investors, index funds and retail participants all compete for limited allocations, often creating a temporary supply-demand imbalance.

In these situations, the short-term performance of a newly listed company can become disconnected from traditional valuation measures.

That does not guarantee gains, nor should investors treat IPO participation as a trading strategy. However, history suggests that flagship listings often attract substantial investor attention during their early months as public companies.

For investors fortunate enough to receive an allocation, this can create opportunities that differ from the long-term investment case.

The bigger lesson: Where value is created

The SpaceX listing also highlights a broader trend that has reshaped global investing over the past two decades.

Many of today’s most successful companies remain private far longer than their predecessors.

Businesses such as Amazon and Google entered public markets relatively early in their growth journeys, allowing listed investors to participate in much of their value creation.

Modern technology companies increasingly follow a different path.

They raise enormous amounts of private capital, remain unlisted for extended periods, and only approach public markets after much of their exponential growth has already occurred.

By the time investors gain access through a public listing, founders, venture capital firms and private equity investors have often captured the largest portion of the wealth creation.

This is one reason private markets have become an increasingly important area of focus for sophisticated investors globally.

Our view

There is little debate about the quality of the underlying business.

SpaceX has built dominant positions in commercial space launches, satellite communications and, increasingly, artificial intelligence infrastructure. Few companies possess a comparable combination of technological leadership, scale and strategic importance.

At the same time, the valuation leaves little room for disappointment.

For investors able to secure an allocation, the opportunity is likely best viewed as exposure to a world-class growth company rather than a traditional value investment. The potential rewards may be substantial, but so too is the valuation risk.

Why IPOs still matter

Whether SpaceX ultimately justifies its valuation remains to be seen. What is far less controversial is that the forces driving its growth, namely artificial intelligence, communications infrastructure and advanced technology, are likely to remain among the defining investment themes of the decade ahead.

That is one reason I continue to monitor high-profile listings closely.

Beyond SpaceX, several potential IPOs are already attracting significant attention, including Anthropic and OpenAI. Should these companies eventually come to market, they are likely to rank among the most closely watched listings of the AI era and could provide investors with another opportunity to gain exposure to technologies that are reshaping the global economy.

For investors interested in participating in future global IPO opportunities, access is becoming increasingly important. Through our partnership with Swissquote, eligible Rand Swiss clients can gain access to a range of international listings and investment opportunities that may not otherwise be readily available to South African investors. If you would like to learn more, contact [email protected].

For investors, the challenge is unlikely to be finding exciting opportunities. The challenge will be distinguishing between a great company and a great investment.