Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

Markets at an inflection point: Patience is now paramount

The overall technical backdrop has shifted from constructive to cautious.

Equity markets have accelerated into support far faster than anticipated, currency pairs are hovering near breakout thresholds without clear confirmation, and commodities remain trend-positive but increasingly volatile.

Across asset classes, conviction appears thinner and price action more reactive, suggesting a market environment defined less by steady trend progression and more by inflection, uncertainty, and the need for disciplined patience.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

Cash Index has posted a brutal bearish candle following this morning’s index note.

The speed at which we moved to the support target at 13811 was not foreseen. There are no signs of a bullish reversal to end the pullback just yet. Further support targets are now considered at the 111512 and 109234 levels, should the price not manage to recover and close above the 13811 level.

The size and extent of the move today requires some careful consideration before committing to new longs and the continuation of the longer-term uptrend.
While the long-term uptrend remains intact, getting involved to early can be detrimental to trading accounts. Our preference here is to apply a three day wait rule or wait for a clear bullish reversal before getting long again. If today’s selling persists, lower levels of support can be tested quite quickly and a break of these could suggest a broken uptrend.

Now more than ever, patience is required.

ZAR

USD/ZAR

The USD/ZAR has broken below support of the triangle consolidation, before rallying above resistance of the pattern. This is a suggestion that the currency remains in a short to medium term consolidation rather than having a renewed commitment to near term direction.

The long-term trend remains down, although the move to test resistance at 16.42 questions this trend. A close above 16.42 would assume the downtrend to be broken. This would not yet assume a new uptrend, but the short only bias would need to be reassessed.

The USD/ZAR is at a critical juncture. A close above 16.42 would suggest an upside breakout with 17.00 a possible resistance target. Should the 16.42 level hold and instead we see a bearish price reversal off the level, a move towards 15.80 might be expected.

Commodities

Gold

The price of gold fell just short of the 5443-upside target moving the price back into overbought territory. The long-term trend for the precious yellow metal remains up and as such we look to keep buying into weakness provided long term trendline support is upheld. Traders might prefer to wait to see where the price settles before taking new positions on the commodity.

Brent Crude Oil

A weekly chart of Brent Crude oil shows the price moves it to test the 82.75 resistance level. The trend is clearly up, as is volatility, with geopolitical tensions the major driver thereof. A close above 82.75 would suggest 87.59 as a further resistance target for the commodity. While the trend is up and conventionally, buying into pullbacks is favoured, the uncertainty of war, its unknown duration and most prominent effect on this commodity suggests traders take extra caution if getting involved here.

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