Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

Markets show promise but risks remain

The J40 is testing resistance as higher lows begin to form, while currency and commodity markets are similarly positioned near short-term inflection points.

For now, price action remains rangebound, with the emphasis on confirmation as markets look to establish a clearer trend.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

The J40 is currently finding resistance at the 106,103 level, with support at 102,341 making up the bottom end of a short-term range.

Encouragingly, the price of the index has started to make higher lows. If we can get a close above the 106,103 level, this would mark the first point where we would be seeing higher highs in conjunction with these higher lows. This would suggest a more sustainable reversal of the recent correction we have seen. Of course, higher highs and higher lows are also considered the building blocks of an uptrend.

This hasn’t happened yet and war time volatility would suggest waiting for confirmation (i.e. a breakout). Failure to break the 106,103 level could instead suggest a retest of support at 102,341.

Should either scenario manifest we will update guidance accordingly.

ZAR

USD/ZAR

The USD/ZAR is currently forming a bearish price reversal from overbought territory. There is still a long way to go in today’s session, but if the current candle closes negative (as it currently stands), this could suggest a pullback from the recent move higher we have seen. In this scenario, 16.75 becomes a downside support target.

Should today’s weakness erode and we instead see a positive close on today’s candle, this could imply that the move higher is continuing, with 17.55 as the next upside resistance target.

Commodities

Gold

The price of gold has now confirmed a bullish price reversal from oversold territory and off the 4,398-support level. 4,700 becomes the initial resistance target from the move while a close below the 4,398-support level would instead suggest the bullish indications to have failed.

Brent Crude Oil

The price of brent crude has rallied back to the closing high of 112.86 where it is currently finding resistance. The commodity remains in a long-term uptrend but in the short term is rangebound in nature.

The long-term uptrend suggests keeping a long bias to trades although our preference would be to look for entry closer towards range / gap support at around the 94 level. A break above resistance at 112.86 would suggest the intraday high at 119.50 to be a further target.

Financials

Discovery

The share price of Discovery has found a confluence of trend line and horizontal support at the 242 level. We are looking for a bullish price reversal off this level to suggest the longer-term uptrend is resuming. In this scenario, a move towards the highs at 256.60 and 266.12, respectively, would be targeted, while a close below trend line support might be used as a stop loss indication.

Resources

Industrials

Retail

MTN

MTN may be one for traders to put on the watchlist for now. The long-term trend is up, although in the short term, the share price has been consolidating within a triangle-shaped formation. Triangles in an uptrend suggest that a continuation of the long-term uptrend may be nearing. The approach to trading these patterns is to wait for a confirmed break of the pattern’s resistance before committing to the directional momentum.