Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

Markets stabilise with reversal signals starting to emerge

This week’s edition of Tech Tuesday finds markets attempting to stabilise following the sharp volatility triggered by recent geopolitical developments.

Several major instruments are now testing key technical levels, with early signs of bullish reversals emerging from oversold conditions across equities and resources. While the broader environment remains uncertain, price action suggests markets may be beginning to rebuild momentum from important support levels.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

We have a bullish price reversal at support (108014) and from oversold territory, suggesting the end of the war-induced correction.

Our preference, as before, would be for the index to close above the 111512 level to show some momentum and bullish continuation from the reversal.

However, a reversal is in and held up overnight. 113811 is the upside target favoured.

After the severity of the correction, long positions do feel uneasy, but the signal is there, and we can reduce position sizes in highly volatile markets and use stop losses for downside protection.

Traders who are long might consider using a close below the 109234 level as a stop loss indication.

Important to note, the J40 will cash adjust for an estimated 448.7 points before the close of our equity market today.

ZAR

USD/ZAR

The upside breakout scenario for the USD/ZAR manifested since our last note, with the price closing above the 16.42 level. The move higher fell just short of the 17.00 resistance target.

The upside breakout negates the longer-term downtrend but does not yet assume a renewed uptrend. For now, we consider a large range-bound environment for the currency pair between levels 15.72 (support) and 17.00 (resistance).

Commodities

Gold

The price of gold looks to have formed a bullish price reversal off the 5090 support level (previous resistance). The reversal suggests that the longer-term uptrend may now be continuing.

5443 provides the upside resistance target, while a move below the low at 4995 would suggest the bullish assumptions to have failed.

Brent Crude Oil

The exponential gains we have seen in Brent crude oil took the price well past any resistance targets we have had previously. The price has since started to correct from severely overbought levels.

The trend for the commodity remains up, although we are waiting for a deeper correction towards one of the lower levels of support before reconsidering new long positions.

Financials

Nedbank

Nedbank has corrected from overbought territory back to trend line support. The share price is now attempting to form a bullish price reversal from oversold territory and continue the longer-term uptrend.

To confirm the reversal, we would like to see a positive close today. In this scenario, we target a move back towards the 292.33 resistance level.

Traders who find long entry into the stock might consider using a close below the low at 266.58 as a stop loss indication.

Resources

The BHP Group

BHP has corrected from overbought territory back to trend line support. The share price is now attempting to form a bullish price reversal from oversold territory and continue the longer-term uptrend.

To confirm the reversal, we would like to see a positive close today. In this scenario, we target a move back towards the 638.61 resistance level.

Traders who find long entry into the stock might consider using a close below the low at 570.65 as a stop loss indication.

African Rainbow Minerals

African Rainbow Minerals is currently attempting to form a bullish price reversal off range support.

A positive close today would confirm the reversal and suggest a move back towards resistance at 235.89, possibly 248.01.

Traders who find long entry (should the reversal confirm) might consider using a close below the 210.47 level as a stop loss indication.

Valterra

Valterra has corrected from overbought territory back to trend line support. The share price is now attempting to form a bullish price reversal from oversold territory and continue the longer-term uptrend.

To confirm the reversal, we would like to see a positive close today. In this scenario, we target a move back towards the 1799 resistance level.

Traders who find long entry into the stock might consider using a close below trend line support at 1493 as a stop loss indication.

Northam Platinum

Northam Platinum has corrected from overbought territory back to trend line support. The share price is now attempting to form a bullish price reversal from oversold territory and continue the longer-term uptrend.

To confirm the reversal, we would like to see a positive close today. In this scenario, we target a move back towards the 435.60 resistance level.

Traders who find long entry into the stock might consider using a close below the 363.95 level as a stop loss indication.

Industrials

Bidcorp

Bid Corp looks to be forming a bullish price reversal off support and from oversold territory. A positive close on today’s candle would confirm the reversal. In this scenario, a move towards resistance at 432.78 is favoured, while a close below the 413.74 might then be used as a stop loss indication.

MTN Group

MTN has corrected from overbought territory back to trend line support. The share price is now attempting to form a bullish price reversal from oversold territory and continue the longer-term uptrend.

To confirm the reversal, we would like to see a positive close today. In this scenario, we target a move back towards the 203.43 resistance level.

Traders who find long entry into the stock might consider using a close below the low at 185.63 as a stop loss indication.

Retail