Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

This week’s edition of Tech Tuesday finds markets still unsettled, with recent recovery attempts losing momentum and several key instruments slipping back into consolidation.

While broader trends across commodities and select equities remain constructive, repeated failures at key levels are beginning to weigh on conviction. Currency markets are showing signs of a potential shift in direction, while equities continue to search for firmer footing.

The tone this week is one of cautious re-engagement, where confirmation is increasingly important before committing to directional trades.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

The last bullish reversal on the J40 Cash index failed with the price continuing to drift lower.

This makes the new bullish reversal off the 106100 level harder to follow as confidence in long positions lowers with each failure. To increase conviction, we would like to see a price close above the 109232 level, as it would highlight a bit more upside momentum. In this scenario, we would once again target a move back towards the 11512 level.

Should the setup complete, we will update the guidance with suggested stop-loss/failure levels.

Important to note, the J40 will cash adjust for an estimated 89.3 points before the close of our equity market today.

ZAR

USD/ZAR

Last week’s gains on the USD/ZAR fell just short of our previously guided range resistance at 17.00, hitting a high of around 16.95. The upside breakout (above 16.42) and continued gains thereafter hint at a short to medium-term uptrend for the USD/ZAR. We are not yet at the confidence level of buying into pullbacks, but we are hesitant at the idea of trying to short the currency pair right now. 16.95 and 17.13 provide upside resistance targets, while support is considered at the 16.42 mark.

Commodities

Gold

The bullish reversal off the 5090-support level highlighted last week has failed to reach what now seems an ambitious target of 5443. While the commodity price has not actually triggered the guided stop level, the upside momentum appears lost for now.
Gold continues to consolidate just above the (tentative) 4991 support level. A close below this level would suggest a move towards 4860 is possible.

Despite the short-term weakness and price consolidation, we still believe gold to be in a technical uptrend in the longer term, suggesting that a long bias to trades on the commodity remains preferable. For new long positions we would like to see a strong close back above the 5090-resistance level or a bullish price reversal closer to the 4860-support level.

Should either of these scenarios occur we will update guidance accordingly.

Brent Crude Oil

The price correction we saw from recent highs on Brent crude was short-lived as the oil price renewed gains aggressively. The long-term trend is up, which favours keeping a long bias to trades on the commodity.

We do not want to chase a market near highs and prefer looking to buy into pullbacks should the opportunity present itself once again.

Financials

Standard Bank

A double bottom reversal pattern below the 302.54 level suggests the short-term price correction from highs may be done. The long-term trend for the share remains up, and the break above 302.54 suggests that this trend may now be continuing. 318.16 becomes the initial upside resistance target from the move, while a close below the low at 294.80 might be used as a stop loss indication for the trade.

Resources

Valterra

The setup for Valterra is similar to that guided last week, albeit at a lower entry point. The share price looks to have formed a bullish price reversal from oversold territory. This suggests an end to the correction and possibly renewed gains to follow. 1715 becomes our initial resistance target, while a close below support at 1425.68 might be used as a stop loss indication

Industrials

Vodacom

Vodacom looks to have formed a bullish price reversal off the 146.17 support level. The reversal is supported by a move out of oversold territory. 157.37 provides our initial upside resistance target, while a close below the low at 144.43 would suggest the bullish indications to have failed.

Retail