Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

Markets turn cautiously constructive as reversal signals emerge

Tuesday, 5 May 2026

Markets are navigating a cautious but constructive tone, with several markets attempting bullish reversals after recent selling pressure.

The J40 cash index is holding above support, while the rand trades within an established range. Gold has found a tentative footing just above the 4,999 level following a week of broad weakness, and Brent crude continues to press against short-term resistance near 119.49, with the long-term trend remaining supportive of a long bias.

While on the JSE, select counters across the Resources and Industrials sectors are producing technically compelling reversal setups.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

The bullish reversal (circled blue) from oversold territory and off the 105,542 level has yielded little in the way of gains so far but remains valid for the time being.

We have another reversal forming at the 106,299 level currently.

109,232 is the upside resistance target. Traders who are long might consider using a close below the 104,290 level as a stop loss consideration.

There is a small cash adjustment this afternoon of 26.4 points expected for the index.

ZAR

USD/ZAR

The USD/ZAR has spiked above then back below our 16.75 resistance level, having reached a high of around 16.91 in the process.

The currency pair remains rangebound for now and as such we continue to look to trade between the levels.

For a move higher we are looking for a strong close above 16.75, in which case 16.91 and 17.22 become upside resistance targets respectively.

For a move lower, we would like to see today’s candle close below the halfway mark of the preceding candle. This would instead suggest a short-term reversal. In this scenario, a move back towards 16.29 becomes favoured.

Commodities

Gold

Gold broke through several of our support levels over the last week and looks to have settled just above the 4,999 mark.

The price is attempting to reverse off the 4,999 level currently.

A reversal would be confirmed if today’s candle can close above the halfway mark of the preceding candle. In this scenario, a move back towards 4,700 / 4,722 would be favoured, while a close below 4,999 would suggest the move to have failed.

Should the 4,999 level not hold and instead we see a close below, a move to 4,400 becomes favoured. In this scenario, traders who find short entry might consider using a close above the 4,546 level as a stop loss indication.

Brent Crude Oil

The price of Brent crude has moved to test the intraday high at around 119.49. The price is currently finding resistance at the level.

As with previous guidance, the long-term trend suggests keeping a long bias to trades on the commodity.

For new long positions we are looking for a break above the 119.49 level and the first pullback thereafter. Alternatively, should the price reverse off resistance and a pullback ensue, we would be looking for long entry on a bullish price reversal closer to one of the lower levels of support on the chart above.

Financials

Resources

African Rainbow Minerals

The share price of African Rainbow has formed a bullish price reversal (circled blue) off the 214.82 support level. The reversal is accompanied by a move out of oversold territory. A move back towards the 245.51 resistance level is favoured from the bullish signals. Traders who are long might consider using a close below the 214.82 level as a stop loss indication.

Valterra

The share price of Valterra has formed a bullish price reversal (circled blue) from oversold territory. A move towards the gap resistance between 1,482 and 1,506 is favoured from the reversal. Traders who are long might consider using a close below the reversal candle low as a stop loss indication.

Industrials

Richemont

The share price of Richemont has formed a bullish price reversal off gap support at the 3,040 level. The reversal is accompanied by a move out of oversold territory. A move towards 3,273 is favoured from the reversal. Trades who are long might consider using a close below 3,040 as a stop loss indication.

Retail