Senior Analyst, Rand Swiss

Shaun is a senior analyst specialising in derivatives trading and technical analysis across index, commodity, FX, and equity markets. With nearly 20 years of experience in financial markets, Shaun brings deep expertise to his role, presenting research and analysis to Rand Swiss clients. Shaun is a regular commentator on local and global financial markets, contributing to major media outlets including CNBC Africa, Reuters, Moneyweb, and Business Day. He produces daily and weekly market reports focused on technical analysis and trading opportunities in his core markets. As a registered person at the JSE and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTE), Shaun combines formal credentials with practical market expertise.

You can follow Shaun on Twitter at @ShaunMurison_RS for regular market updates and trading insights.

Markets caught between breakout and breakdown

Markets are navigating a series of critical technical inflection points, with key levels under renewed scrutiny across local equities, the rand and commodities. Yesterday’s constructive price action raised hopes of follow-through gains, but today’s session has introduced fresh ambiguity, placing the burden of proof back on the bulls.

Inside this update:

• J40 Cash Index
• ZAR
• Commodities
• JSE Sector Analysis & Trade Setups

J40 Cash Index

The J40 index continues to flirt with the 109,232 level. Yesterday’s positive close suggested a move towards the 112,208 and 112,753 resistance levels. Today’s testing of the 109,232 level casts some doubt on those assumptions.

Traders who are long might consider using today’s closing price as a reference point. A close below 109,232 would assume the move towards 112208 to have failed. If the 109,232 level can instead hold, preferably with a strong close into the end of the session, 112,208 and 112,753 would remain short-term upside targets.

ZAR

USD/ZAR

The bearish price reversal scenario from last week manifested, bringing the USD/ZAR currency pair back to the 16.29 support level. Our range-bound price environment has been reaffirmed with the move.

We now have a bullish price reversal off the 16.29 support level. The reversal now targets a move back towards the 16.75 level. Traders who are long might consider using a close below the 16.29 level as a stop loss indication.

Commodities

Gold

Last week’s bullish reversal off support succeeded in translating into renewed gains for gold, with the 4,722-resistance target realised.

The price closed above the 4,722 level yesterday, suggesting a move to the next level of resistance at 4,832. However, today’s price action creates some ambiguity as we currently trade back below the breakout level and within overbought territory.

Our preference is to wait out the next move on gold and rather look for opportunity at the outskirts of the broader range. This broader range sees support at 4,499 and resistance at 4,832.

Brent Crude Oil

Last week’s bearish reversal on oil took the price back to the 105.32 support level. The price has since reversed and started to renew gains. Our preference (for now) remains keeping a long bias to trades in line with the prevailing trend.

For now, new long entries are favourable on reversals closer to or below the 105.32 support level, with 112.68 and 119.49 continued upside resistance targets.

Financials

Capitec Holdings

The share price of Capitec is attempting to reverse off support. We are looking for a strong close off the 4,272-support level before considering a range trade, targeting a move back towards resistance at 4,490. In this scenario, a close below today’s intraday low might be used as a stop loss indication.

Resources

Glencore

The share price of Glencore is consolidating within a triangle shaped formation. Triangles are generally considered continuation patterns, suggesting in this context that the preceding uptrend may be setting up to resume. We are adding Glencore to our watchlist as we wait for an upside breakout. Should the breakout manifest, we will update guidance with targets and failure levels.

Industrials

Aspen

The share price of Aspen is undergoing its first pullback from its recent high. The price is also testing support at 140.58. We are looking for a bullish price reversal at current or before the 136.76 level for long entry. Should we get the reversal, a retest of the highs at 150 to 151.56 is favoured, while traders might use a close below the reversal low as a stop loss indication.

Retail